By
Eric Brahm

April 2005
 

Elections are a cornerstone of democracy and, hence, figure prominently in democratization efforts around the world. This is in large part because elections serve a number of significant functions that are seen to be important in conflict management. First, elections provide the government with legitimacy, as officials are chosen through the popular will.[1] Second, in principle, they allow for the alternation of governing coalitions, which ostensibly permits the entry of new ideas into policy debates and different approaches to governance.[2] Simply put, it allows for diverse voices to have a role in governing. What is more, with respect to conflict management, alternation of power builds confidence in former opponents, encourages stability, and allows the public to learn visions different groups have for the country.[3]

The importance of elections is underscored by the fact that some of the world's most unreformed autocrats still feel the need to at least go through the motions. The Soviet Union held elections throughout its history and many contemporary dictators such as Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak regularly hold flawed votes. This attests to the power of elections to legitimate political authority in the late 20^th and 21^st centuries, but also points to the risks of fetishizing elections as an unqualified solution to conflict.

In fact, what has been called illiberal democracy is flourishing. "Across the globe, democratically elected regimes, often ones that have been re-elected or reaffirmed through referenda, are routinely ignoring constitutional limits on their power and depriving their citizens of basic rights."[4] In many countries in Africa and Central Asia, founding elections have produced dictatorship. The trick, then, is to construct electoral institutions such that formerly opposing sides will continue to use peaceful means of resolving disputes.

Types of Electoral Systems

Countries have devised a dizzying array of electoral systems to pursue a range of often conflicting goals.[5] Broadly speaking, however, one can divide them into plurality/single-member district (SMD) systems and proportional representation (PR) systems. The choice of electoral system chosen reflects a trade-offs of a number of values: efficiency, representativeness, effectiveness, stability, accountability, and inclusion.

Plurality/Single-Member District (SMD) systems. Also often referred to as 'winner-take--all' or 'first past the post' systems, the United States and Great Britain serve as prominent examples. In such a system, each electoral district elects only one individual. Whoever gets the most votes, and frequently this need only be a plurality rather than a majority, is elected to the seat. This leads to situations, such as the 1992 US presidential election where Clinton won with only 43% of the popular vote. In principle, then, more than half of voters are not being represented. More generally, these systems produce artificial majorities. For example, a losing candidate may get one percent less than the winner and get no voice. The benefit of such a system is that it permits more effective government because this artificially large majority makes it easy to get the agenda through.

To summarize:

• Pros
  • o These types of electoral systems have a tendency to lead to a two-party system thereby giving a distinct choice to voters. [6]
  • o As a result of this tendency to two parties, parties will tend to be centrist, which may be beneficial in minimizing extremist elements.
  • o Because of the likelihood of gaining a significant majority, these systems are often less prone to gridlock and are, therefore, more effective (although significant separation of powers as in the US can minimize this).
  • o At the same time, the likelihood that the opposition is more unified allows it to provide a more effective check on the government's power.
  • o Due to the tendency to two parties, parties typically govern on their own. Therefore, it is easier for the populace to hold the party accountable.

• Cons
  • o With a majority, there may be little need for the ruling party to compromise. Therefore, there is no voice for the minority. In some instances, parties have essentially become permanent minorities.
  • o There is a tendency to produce regional dominance by one party, such as the so-called red-blue [Republican-Democrat] divide that has emerged in American politics.
  • o The system may be susceptible to gerrymandering as the majority will have a strong incentive to use the benefits of office to ensure it remains in power..

Proportional representation (PR) systems. PR systems appoint seats in the legislature based on the percentage of the vote received, rather than who got the most votes. Each electoral district, therefore, sends multiple representatives to the legislature. There is often a minimum percentage of the vote needed in order to gain a seat, but this allows smaller parties to gain a voice in the legislature. As a result, groups are more likely to form their own party and compete, rather than engage in negotiation within a party as would be more likely in a plurality system. To summarize:

• Pros
  • The lower threshold of votes needed to gain a seat in the legislature permits minority voices to be heard there.
  • PR systems provide an incentive for parties to seek a diverse list of candidates.
  • It avoids the manufactured majorities of plurality systems that distort the actual public will.
  • PR systems reduce the problems of wasted votes and regional dominance of plurality systems. The resulting coalition governments usually resulting in PR systems better reflect society.
• Cons
  • Because one party gaining an outright majority in the legislature is rare in PR systems, parties with this large blocks of seats need coalition partners. The stability of the government, however, can then be hostage to small, perhaps extremist, parties.
  • The need to cobble together a majority to form a government can result in fragile coalitions with thin majorities. This can make it difficult to be effective and potential instability.
  • Because governments are frequently made up of multiple coalition partners, accountability is complicated because it is easier to pass the buck.

Many argue that properly designed electoral systems can be powerful form of conflict management.[7] One risk that pluralist systems are more susceptible to is the electoral dominance of a permanent majority. Various mechanisms such as federalism might help address this problem. It is also often argued of the importance to provide incentives for a majority group to moderate.[8] For example, the Lebanese system has reserved seats for ethnic groups and therefore requires politicians to compete against their co-ethnics. Nigeria requires a president to get at least 25% of the vote in at least 2/3 of the states. Sri Lanka has a second preference ballot for president so that if no one gets a majority, second preferences are reallocated to form one. It would also seem desirable to promote coalitions amongst groups, while at the same time trying to prevent these coalitions from hardening into a permanent majority, as was the case in Kenya for much of its history.

There is, however, disagreement as to what more specific power-sharing arrangements are most conducive to elections helping to bring the violence to an end. Failures do not necessarily reflect weakness of a particular electoral mechanism, but rather a failure to select the appropriate solution and then time and implement them appropriately.[9] This is a difficult task given the complexity of most post-conflict situations.

The Difficulties of Post-Conflict Elections

Elections have been a part of nearly every negotiated settlement of a civil war in the post-Cold War period.[10] Where secession or partition are not an option (and it rarely is given norms of sovereignty),[11] conventional wisdom is that democratic elections are the most effective means of channeling competition to peaceful means. In the peacebuilding operations of the post-Cold War era, there has been a common assumption that the rapid introduction of democratic politics and market-oriented economies is a sure-fire way to create lasting peace.[12] They have allure because they provide validation to peace processes and broaden political participation. In theory, it transfers competition from the battlefield to the campaign trail. Post settlement elections clearly have a lot riding on them. They are expected to provide both internal and external legitimacy to the agreement.

At the same time, they are organized under less than ideal conditions. Disarmament may not be complete and institutions may be in sorry shape to manage an election.[13] Trust in other groups is weak, the issues are emotionally sensitive, the parties are faction-ridden and incoherent, and outside parties may be crucial to guarantee a settlement. Where institutions to effectively manage political and economic competition are lacking, however, liberalization can lead to renewed violence.[14] In order to minimize possibility of return to fighting, what is needed is to build norms and institutions, e.g. parties and electoral commissions, prior to electoral competition.[15] Interim regimes, if inclusive and engage in collaborative decision-making, can serve a bridging role, derive legitimacy through achieving the ends of building institutions. Another problem to be confronted in such circumstances is the continuing security dilemma Demobilization and disarmament if done in the same way can build confidence. Demilitarization also can facilitate the transition from combatant to party.

In some instances, democratization has actually increased the likelihood of conflict.[16] While some argue that electoral politics allow supposedly ancient ethnic hatreds to resurface,[17] others contend that nationalism provides a ready means for political elites once in power to remain in power. War and economic hardship serve as a rallying cry. "For those elites, nationalism is a convenient doctrine that justifies a partial form of democracy, in which an elite rules in the name of the nation yet may not be fully accountable to its people."[18] According to Snyder, the susceptibility to nationalist rhetoric depends primarily on the level of social and economic development, strength and character of political institutions, and the interests of groups significant in the nation-building project.

The Role of the International Community

Particularly since the end of the Cold War, there has been a widespread assumption that democracy is the best form of government. Intergovernmental organizations such as the UN and OSCE have developed technical assistance programs to help countries create and reform electoral systems. Non-governmental organizations have figured prominently as well. Both have also monitored elections in order to minimize fears of cheating where there is little trust between opponents. Increasingly, the international community has even managed elections to minimize fear of rigging.

Despite the challenging environment, there is often significant pressure to quickly hold elections.[19] Elections may be necessary to convince states or other entities to contribute resources to the peacebuilding mission. They also serve as a convenient signal that external actors can begin to extricate themselves from the intervention. This, however, is unfortunate, because elections are often the beginning, not the end, of the rebuilding process.

For external actors wanting to contribute to building effective electoral systems, Sisk provides the following advice:[20]

• Conduct specialized assessments of the cleavages in a given society, and how the introduction of democratic institutions relates to those cleavages.
• Take a long view.
• Acknowledge and address the trade-offs and limits.
• Consider pre-election pacts.
• Develop a clear sense of the "comparative advantage" of various organizations and institutions and coordinate and maximize their impact with respect to any given case.
• Seek to determine whether the parties are truly committed to democratization and conflict management.
• Consider carefully the mandates for intervention.
• Mediators should analyze the choice points, the alternatives, the trade-offs, and the potential consequences of electoral system choice.
• Consider conflict management mechanisms beyond strictly electoral processes.
• Explore innovative decision-rules and incentives for inter-group cooperation.
• Provide expertise and guidance, for example by providing a simulation of how systems would work.
• Explore different sequencing options of aspects of the peace process.
• Suggest independent bodies to adjudicate electoral disputes.
• Build conflict management mechanisms into each aspect of the electoral process.
• Strengthen and systematize monitoring and observation.

[1] Robert A. Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989).

[2] Donald L. Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa: Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).; Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991).

[3] Andrew Reynolds and Timothy D. Sisk, "Elections and Electoral Systems: Implications for Conflict Management," in Elections and Conflict Management in Africa, Timothy D. Sisk and Andrew Reynolds, Editors. (Washington DC: USIP Press, 1998).

[4] Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003) p. 17.

[5] For a sense of variation, see Guy S. Goodwin-Gill, Free and Fair Elections in International Law (Geneva: Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1994), International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance's (IDEA) Electoral System Family Tree at http://www.idea.int/esd/systems.cfm and the Administration and Cost of Elections Project at http://www.aceproject.org/main/english/es/esc05.htm. For a broad range of links related to electoral issues, visit http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/election.htm.

[6] This tendency has become identified as Duverger's Law. For a quick summary, see http://janda.org/c24/Readings/Duverger/Duverger.htm. For a modern 'update,' see Cox, Gary W. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems. New York: Cambridge University Press.

[7] Elections and Conflict Management in Africa, Timothy D. Sisk and Andrew Reynolds, Editors. (Washington DC: USIP Press, 1998).; Ben Reilly and Andrew Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies, Papers on International Conflict Resolution no. 2 (Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1999).

[8] Donald L. Horowitz "Ethnic Conflict Management for Policymakers," in Joseph V. Montville, ed. Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (New York: Lexington Books, 1991) p. 125-129.

[9] Donald L. Horowitz "Ethnic Conflict Management for Policymakers," in Joseph V. Montville, ed. Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (New York: Lexington Books, 1991) p. 125-129.

[10] Krishna Kumar, ed. Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998).

[11] Where either are an option, they may not lead to a reduction in conflict. The conflict may simply shift from intrastate to interstate. What is more, separation will often create new minorities in the new states thereby reproducing the conflict.

[12] Paris, Roland. 2004. At war's end : building peace after civil conflict. Cambridge, U.K. ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

[13] Terrence Lyons "Implementing Peace: The Role of Postsettlement Elections." In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements. Edited by Stephen John Stedman, Elizabeth Cousens, and Donald Rothchild. (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2002) p. 215-235.

[14] Paris, Roland. 2004. At war's end : building peace after civil conflict. Cambridge, U.K. ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

[15] Terrence Lyons "Implementing Peace: The Role of Postsettlement Elections." In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements. Edited by Stephen John Stedman, Elizabeth Cousens, and Donald Rothchild. (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2002) p. 215-235.; Paris, Roland. 2004. At war's end : building peace after civil conflict. Cambridge, U.K. ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

[16] Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," International Security 20:1 (Summer 1995) 5-38.

[17] Hurst Hannum, Autonomy, Sovereignty, and Self-Determination (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1996).; Daniel Byman and Stephen Van Evera, "Hypotheses on the Causes of Contemporary Deadly Conflict," Security Studies 7:3 (Spring 1998).

[18] Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000) p. 32.

[19] Terrence Lyons "Implementing Peace: The Role of Postsettlement Elections." In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements. Edited by Stephen John Stedman, Elizabeth Cousens, and Donald Rothchild. (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2002) p. 215-235.

[20] Timothy D. Sisk, Elections and Conflict Management in Africa: Conclusions and Recommendations" in Elections and Conflict Management in Africa, Timothy D. Sisk and Andrew Reynolds, Editors. (Washington DC: USIP Press, 1998) 158-170.​

Use the following to cite this article:
Brahm, Eric. "Elections." Beyond Intractability. Eds. Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess. Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder. Posted: April 2005 <http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/elections>.

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