Early Warning Checklist for Witnesses
- Are there stereotypes and widespread prejudice? Negative generalizations about the members of a particular group are likely to blind parties to all that they have in common and facilitate the formation of enemy images. Common results are dehumanization, a shutdown of communication channels, heightened tensions, and conflict escalation.
- Are the individuals or groups in question deeply angry at each other? While anger is natural and potentially productive emotions, it can also get out of control and become destructive. Anger sometimes leads to rage, which in turn may lead to violence.
- Is security an issue? Is there a high level of fear? Parties who view each other as a threat are more likely to distrust and misunderstand each other and may respond aggressively, making their opponent feel insecure and react with hostility.
- Have the parties become increasingly polarized? When individuals on either side of the conflict take increasingly extreme positions that are more and more opposed to each other, conflict becomes increasingly destructive.
- Have group members begun to frame their conflict in increasingly destructive ways? Witnesses should be on the lookout for into-the-sea framing and the development of a siege mentality.
- Are parties' human needs being met? Even if people aren't wanting for food or shelter, they often are wanting in one or more intangible needs, such as security, identity, or respect. Unlike interests, needs are non-negotiable. Frustrated or unmet human needs are one of the fundamental causes of conflict.
- Do the members of one group feel as if they are the victims of injustice? Have any human rights been violated? Human rights are the articulation of the need for justice, tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity in all of our activities. Abuse of human rights often leads to conflict escalation, which typically results in even further human rights violations. When such violations intensify, refugee flows increase, and governments turn more oppressive and unstable, war grows more likely.
For More Information
Much of the material on this user guide is drawn from www.thirdside.org. Thanks to William Ury and Joshua Weiss for giving us permission to republish their material here.
